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  • Consider four computer firms, A, B, C, D, bidding for a certain contract. A survey of pastbidding success of these firms on similar contracts shows the following probabilities of winning:P(A) = 0:35, P(B) = 0:15, P(C) = 0:3, P(D) = 0:2.Before the decision

Consider four computer firms, A, B, C, D, bidding for a certain contract. A survey of pastbidding success of these firms on similar contracts shows the following probabilities of winning:P(A) = 0:35, P(B) = 0:15, P(C) = 0:3, P(D) = 0:2.Before the decision is made to award the contract, firm B withdraws its bid. Find the new probabilities of A, C, D winning the bid.

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Let;N;be;the;event;that;B;does;not;get;the;contract.\*Let;A;be;the;event;that;A;gets;the;contract.;We;calculate;Pr(A|N).\*Please;not;that;this;is;does;not;solve;the;problem.;The;conditional\*probability;Pr(A|N);is;not;necessarily;the;probability;described;in;the\*problem.; But;it;is;very;likely;to;be;what;you;are;intended;to;compute.\* By;the;usual;defining;formula;for;conditional;probability,;we;have\* Rightarrow Pr(A|N)=fracPr(Acap B)Pr(N)\* herefore Pr(Acap B)= Pr(A)\* Rightarrow Pr(A|N)=frac0.350.85\* Similarly,; Pr(C|N)=frac0.30.85,\*and,;Pr(D|N)=frac0.20.85\*So,;the;new; probabilities;of;A,;C,;D;winning;the;bid;is;0.41,;0.35,;and;0.24\* respectively.

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Deependra Verma

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